Кульбачевская О.В. Доклад "The Role of the Cartographic Method in Conducting the Population Census and Presenting Its Results" на рабочей встрече "Russian Census Workshop", Brown University, Watson Institute, USA, March 2002

As we know, the cartographic, or visual form of presenting data makes it possible to more easily and fully evaluate the scope (prostranstvennyi vektor) of cartographic indicators, and show their character, regularity, correlation, and developmental tendencies. Consequently, the use of cartography to present census results on ethnicity can help in the construction of a complex picture of ethnic processes. It can not, in itself, directly influence how the population census will be conducted (its methodology), at least not the upcoming (October 2002) Russian census.

However:

1. The cartographic method of presenting and analyzing data, as well as accompanying graphic aids (graphs and diagrams) can contribute to a preliminary evaluation of the ethnic structure of the constituent members of the Russian Federation and of Russia as a whole. They can also help in isolating the factors influencing the formation of this structure, and assessing the relative weight of each of these factors.

2. The cartographic method is also useful in the post-census analysis, as it is an effective tool in studying the character, correlation, and developmental tendencies of ethnic, linguistic, demographic, socio-economic, and socio-psychological phenomena.

3. Conducting a comparison between the preliminary results of research and the data collected by the census will reveal the level of accuracy of the prognosis. Fairly high accuracy will attest to the significance of cartometry (cartometriia) in the preparatory stage of the census.

Some elaborations are needed. An assessment of the factors influencing the formation of the ethnic structure (first and foremost, the mechanical growth [net growth due to migration] of the population, including all types of migration and natural growth, as well as various socio-economic factors), is possible in principle. In practice, however, the matter is more complicated since we have to deal with several problems. One is the absence of corresponding data, another is the existence of Goskomstat data that can not be presented without first undergoing some preliminary work by the user. There is yet another difficulty, namely limited access to statistical information held by Goskomstat. As a rule, researchers have to purchase information from Goskomstat at a very high price. Because of insufficient financial resources, scholars can only purchase small amounts of data. The price of the data is even higher when additional work on it is needed.

In the context of limited access to data by scholars, Goskomstat has turned to academic institutions, in particular the Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology to secure the assistance it needs to elaborate the methodology and instruments of the population census. Perhaps it would make sense for the project to try and resolve this problem by establishing a permanent (postoainnyi) working relationship with Goskomstat that would be beneficial for both sides. Goskomstat can provide information, and the scholars can participate in working with the data, analyzing it and identifying the developmental tendencies of various social processes that could have been important for the next population census. In this way, scholarly analysis would be a component of the preparatory aspect of the census, and help in revising the ideology and methodology employed in conducting the last census.

Let us now examine the use of cartometry in the evaluative-prognostic work preceding the census. To date, work has already been done on the cartographic presentation of the results of the 1989 population census connected to ethnicity. This includes:

•a series of maps on the settlement of ethnic groups that are important from a numerical and socio-political perspective in the Russian Federation

•a series of maps, “Forced Migration” (1992-2000), based on a list of ethnic groups compiled on the same basis as the list in the first series. The list of this second series is different from the first because forced migration, producing serious socio-political changes, resulted in the current importance of certain ethnic groups (Kurds, Meskhetian Turks). The issue of the existence of such ethnic groups became political: The growing sense of ethnic identity among the Kurds and the Meskhetian Turks has triggered the same phenomenon among Russians in response, primarily among the Cossacks of the North Caucasus. The cartography of forced migration is based on data from the Federal Migration Service of Russia (FMS). The FMS ethnic list includes the Meskhetian Turks. However, they did not appear in the list of the 1989 census.

•a series of maps on the mechanical growth of the population in each of the constituent members of the Russian Federation (1992-1999). A separate set of maps in this series is used to show the various components of mechanical growth: external and internal migration (the data already includes the number of forced migrants). These maps on internal and external migration are based on Goskomstat data on the ethnic composition of migrants, which Goskomstat obtained from the Ministry of the Interior (MVD). The problem we faced in constructing these maps is that members of these groups—Kurds and Meskhetian Turks—are not registered. Moreover, Goskomstat’s category “Migrants of Other Nationalities,” which lists the Chinese, Koreans, Germans, Poles, and others, includes no migration data, except for some statistics on the Germans.

There is no doubt that the discrepancies, lack of uniformity, and discrete nature of Goskomstat’s data makes it difficult to conduct research that involves the study of a whole complex of phenomena. Thus, at the moment, it is not possible to draw up maps on the natural growth of the population since the data on the reproduction of the population from an ethnic perspective have not been processed and have, therefore, not been made available by Goskomstat. However, the cartography of demographic, migration, and socio-economic data already at our disposal can be used to provide an approximate picture of the nature and interconnectedness of ethnic and socio-economic processes in the Russian Federation.

Some of the possibilities afforded by the cartographic method of studying census data are shown below, using the Stavropol region (krai) as an example. This region was selected because it is a constituent member of the North Caucasus region of Russia, has a fairly large influx of migrants every years, and is characterized by a high level of ethnic tension. The regional Stavropol press publishes statements by the local authorities about how the Slavic population is being forced out of the region’s territory, and articles about the Cossacks’ irreconcilable relations with the peoples of the Caucasus.

A comparison of the diagram on the ethnic structure of the Stavropol region in 1989 and the diagram on the ethnic breakdown of the region’s migration increase during the period 1992-1999 shows that the mechanical increase among the Russians is proportional to their number in 1989. The proportion of Armenians grew, while the Darginians are characterized by constant negative growth (the reasons for this phenomenon are worthy of investigation). An examination of the diagram on migration between 1992-1999 reveals that the Russians (the largest group), Azerbaijanis, Georgians, and Ossetians tend toward stable positive mechanical growth. The indicators for the last three groups are small (several hundred people per year) and not comparable to the indicators of Russian growth. The diagram also shows the positive mechanical growth of the Belarusians, Moldovans, and Ukrainians. Thus, on the basis of this data, albeit not taking into account the particularities of natural increase, we can suggest that the statements made by the Stavropol authorities about the Slavic population being pushed out of the region are politically motivated. The 2002 Russian census results will indicate whether this is the case.